供应链库存预测误差对系统稳定性的影响

摘要

[目的]基于供应链库存预测误差,研究两种不同的库存预测策略.[方法]运用线性稳定性分析,得出系统的稳定性条件.通过数值模拟,讨论基于库存的预测策略和基于需求市场的预测策略及其误差对供应链稳定性的影响.[结果]优化库存预测策略减小预测误差,可以降低库存波动,增强系统稳定性.另外,减少系统延迟时间可以减小市场需求波动产生的扰动,增强系统的稳定性.[结论]这些特性对削弱牛鞭效应具有一定的指导意义.%[Objective]Based on the inventory strategies,the predicted error in supply chain was studied.[Methods]The stability condition was obtained through linear stability analysis.The influence of error originated from varied condition such as inventory and market was simulated respectively.[Results]The results show that optimizing the inventory forecasting strategy to reduce the forecast error can reduce inventory fluctuations and enhance the system stability.The results also indicate that the decrease of the delay time can reduce the influence of market disturb and make the system stable.[Conclusion]These results are significant and useful for controlling and reducing the Bullwhip effect.