计及风电预测可靠性的含风电电力系统优化调度模型

摘要

针对风电随机性对电力系统安全、经济运行的影响,在考虑风电预测可靠性的基础上,建立含风电的电力系统优化调度模型.将实际风电出力看作随机变量,并通过混合Copula函数对历史风电场出力及其对应预测值建立相关性模型;在得到预测出力后,通过相关性模型获得风电实际出力分布概率;采用机会约束规划建立含风电的电力系统经济调度模型,并在保证系统可靠性的条件下优化风电计划出力.最后通过改进粒子群优化算法求解模型,结果表明该模型和算法可行且有效.%In allusion to influence of wind power random on safe and economic operation of the power system, this paper establishes an optimized dispatching model for the power system with wind power on the basis of considering wind power forecasting reliability.It regards actual wind power output as random variable and makes relevance model for historical wind power filed output and its corresponding forecasting value by means of mixed Copula function.After getting forecasting output, it obtains actual output distribution probability of wind power by the relevance model.By using chance constrained programming, it establishes an economic dispatching model for the power system with wind power which can optimize scheduled output of wind power on the premise of ensuring system reliability.Finally, it solves the model by using improved particle swarm optimization algorithm and proves feasibility and validity of this model and algorithm.