本文利用时间序列数据和省际面板数据,选取排放总量、人均排放量、排放强度作为二氧化碳排放指标对中国二氧化碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行了经验估计.1952-2007年的时间序列协整检验表明,排放总量、人均排放量与人均收入之间存在单调递增的关系,而单位GDP排放量与人均收入之间支持倒U型的环境库兹涅茨曲线,拐点位于1319元.1995-2007年省际面板数据协整检验表明,排放总量与人均收入呈单调递增关系,单位GDP排放量与人均收入之间呈单调递减关系.而人均排放量与人均收入之间存在倒N型关系,两个拐点分别位于3304元和44049元.目前除北京、上海、天津外,其他各省的人均二氧化碳排放量仍位于上升阶段.%Using China's 1952-2007 time-series data and 1995-2007 provincial panel data, the paper takes respectively gross emissions, per capita emissions and emission intensity as the index of carbon dioxide emissions to estimate the environmental Kuznets curve of carbon dioxide emissions of China.Findings are as follows: ( 1 ) Time series data cointegration test shows that the relationship of gross emissions, per capita emissions and per capita income is monotonically increasing, while there is inverted U-type relationship between carbon dioxide emissions of the unit GDP and per capita income with the inflection point at 1319 yuan.(2) Panel data cointegration tests show that relationship between gross emissions and per capita income is monotonically increasing and the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions of unit GDP and per capita income is monotonically decreasing while there is N-type relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita income with two inflection point located at 3304 yuan and 44,049 yuan.At present, only Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin's per capita carbon dioxide emissions are decreasing as their per capita GDP increase, while per capita carbon dioxide emissions of other provinces continue to rise.
展开▼
