战时装备维修器材需求预计方法

摘要

Equipmentmaintenance material is the important material foundation for equipment maintenance service and repair,and the key factor for enhancing the regenerative power,recovering the fighting capacity of equipment. Based on the datasources and main methods of processing,the demand forecast methods of equipment maintenance material are divided into four classes of actual combat statistics,analytical method,empirical coefficient method and simulation method,which are summarized,the basic principle and research status of all kinds of methods are summed up. Then,the four kinds of methods are compared and analyzed,according to the advantages,disadvantages and applicability.Finally,the development trend of demand forecast methods of equipment maintenance material is forecasted,which provides a reference for future support work on equipment maintenance material.%装备维修器材是实施装备维护和修理的重要物资基础,是战时提高装备再生能力、恢复战斗力的重要因素.根据数据来源和数据的主要处理方式,将装备维修器材的需求预计方法分为实战统计法、解析分析法、经验系数法和模拟仿真法四大类,进行了综述分析,总结了各类方法的基本原理及研究现状;从优缺点及适用性方面,对四大类方法进行了对比分析;展望了装备维修器材预计方法的发展趋势,为我军未来的装备维修器材保障工作提供参考.