中国货币供给、通货膨胀和经济增长关系的实证检验--基于VEC模型的分析

摘要

采用中国2002年1月至2012年10月的月度数据，利用VEC模型对货币供给、通货膨胀和经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析，实证结果表明货币供给、通货膨胀和经济增长三者存在长期稳定关系，短期中，高经济增长与货币扩张会带来通货膨胀压力，一定程度的通货膨胀有利于我国的经济增长，当出现高的通货膨胀时，政府应采取紧缩性货币政策缓解通货膨胀压力。%Using the monthly data of China from January 2002 to October 2012, this paper analyzes the relationship among money supply, inflation and economic growth which based on VEC model. The em-pirical results show that there exists a long-term stable relationship among them in a long run. High economic growth and monetary expansion will enlarge inflationary pressure in the short term, at the same time a certain degree of inflation is helpful to economic growth. But the government should adopt tight monetary policies to curb the inflation when the inflation rate is relatively high.