近年来，随着中塔两国直接投资和进出口贸易发展步伐的加快，使得我们有必要对两国间的直接投资与贸易间的关系进行分析和研究。本文从中国对塔吉克斯坦直接投资与贸易发展的现状出发，借鉴国内外相关研究成果，利用蒙代尔的投资对贸易的替代效应理论和小岛清的投资与贸易的互补理论对两国间的投资与贸易关系进行实证分析。结果表明，中国对塔吉克斯坦的直接投资总体上可以促进进出口贸易的发展。为此，今后应该加大对塔吉克斯坦以及中亚其他国家的直接投资．以带来进出口贸易规模的进一步扩大。%In recent years, China speeds up the pace of development of direct investment and import and export trade to Tajikistan, however, we are not clear the relationship of China' s direct investment and trade to Tajikistan, which needs further analysis and research. This paper, based on the Mondale investment alternative theories of trade and Kiyoshi Kojima' s investment and trade complementary theory, drawing lessons from domestic and foreign related researches, starting from the status quo of China' s direct investment to Tajikistan and trade development, makes an empirical analysis of the influence that flow and stock of China's direct investment made on import and export trade to Tajikistan. The results show that China's direct investment in Tajikistan in general can promote the development of import and export trade. Therefore, we should increase the direct investment in Tajikistan and other central Asian countries for further expansion of import and export trade scale.
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