以北运河(北京段)为例模拟评估北京市“水十条”水质改善效果

摘要

基于MIKE11构建北运河(北京段)一维水质模型,以氨氮、COD为目标污染物,建立污染源与水质响应关系.以2013年为基准年,考虑不同人口疏解情景预测2020年北运河(北京段)流域人口,并结合北京市“水十条”设置减排情景方案,对2020年水质改善效果进行量化评估.模拟结果表明:北京市“水十条”可实现显著的水质改善效果,到2020年,在中人口疏解方案下,北运河氨氮、COD平均质量浓度相比2013年分别下降40.8％ ～77.7％、39.3％ ～59.7％.COD质量浓度可稳定达标,氨氮质量浓度离达标还有一定差距,但日浓度可稳定在8mg/L以下,基本消除了黑臭水体.%A one-dimensional water quality model of the North Canal River (Beijing section) was established by MIKE11.Ammonia nitrogen and COD were selected as target pollutants to build the response relationship between pollution sources and water quality.Taking 2013 as the base year,population of the North Canal River (Beijing section) basin by 2020 was projected according to different intensity of population regulation scenarios.In addition,emission reduction scenarios were set based on the action plan for prevention and control of water pollution in Beijing.Then the improvement effect of water quality in 2020 was quantitatively evaluated.Simulation results showed that water quality could be effectively improved after the implementation of the Beijing's action plan.Under the medium population regulation scenario,the average concentration of ammonia nitrogen and COD in the North Canal River by 2020 would decrease by 40.8％-77.7％ and 39.3％-59.7％,respectively,compared with those in 2013.Meanwhile,COD would achieve the goal of water quality improvement.Ammonia nitrogen with daily concentration below 8 mg/L would not reach the water quality standard;however,the black and odorous water bodies would be eliminated.