情景分析法应用于能源需求与碳排放预测

摘要

能源是关系到国计民生的重要资源,国家日益倡导节能减排,能源需求预测与规划已成为了一个地区重要的任务.本文以全国十强县之一-江阴作为代表,应用情景分析法,预测2011～2020年能源需求与碳排放,以此反映我国经济发达县市能源需求和碳排放趋势.%Energy is of vital importance to the nationals economy and peoples livelihood. Energy demand forecasting has become an important task for the regional development on the initiative of Chinese Governments ad vocation on energy saving and emission reduction. Taking Jiangyin as an example, one of the top 10 economic powerful countries in China, the paper tries to forecast the likely energy demand and carbon emissions in 2011 - 2020 by the method of Scenario Analysis, so as to reflect the energy demand and carbon emission trends in those developed countries.