基于蒙特卡罗的故障树模型的仿真研究

摘要

定量计算顶事件发生的概率是进行故障树分析的重要环节,通常采用公式计算时,不仅计算量大,而且计算过程复杂、繁琐,很容易出错.本文利用蒙特卡罗模拟法对故障树模型进行仿真,从而精确计算出顶事件发生概率以及其他一些可靠性指标,通过实例证明,此方法简单易行,计算结果精度高,对复杂系统的可靠性分析具有十分重要意义.%Quantitative calculation of the probability of top events is the key and difficulty of Fault Tree Analysis. When calculate with formula, not only the calculation is large, but also the calculation process is complex, cumbersome and very prone to error. Using Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the fault tree model, thereby accurately calculate the probability of the top events, as well as other indicators of reliability is easy to implement and get high-precision results. It will be useful to system reliability analysis.