模糊时间序列模型在论域定义上的研究

摘要

文中基于模糊时间序列模型,提出了如何定义论域的方法.预测人员在不断地应用模糊时间序列模型进行预测的同时,也对此模型进行了不同方面的改进,但是大部分主要包括两个方面:一是论域划分,而是模糊关系表示.在论域划分上面,现有的研究都是简单的向上和向下取整的方法,没有意识到论域区间的定义也会影响到预测的结果的原因,所以本文研究了新的定义论域区间的方法,本文新的方法中提出论域区间的定义和当前类别的数据分布有关,这样充分考虑了样本数据的分布情况,提高了论域间隔的准确度和可解释性.最后,本文应用阿拉巴马州大学的预测结果和最新的论域划分方法进行了比较,结果表明了此方法的有效性.%This paper puts forward how to define the discourse on fuzzy time series models. Although forecasters have applied the model and improved it at the same time , the most research included two aspects: one is the division of discourse , the other one is fuzzy logic relationship. On the definition of discourse,due to the existing research on the definition of discourse is only simply rounded up and down, unaware of the importance of the definition of discourse can also affect the result of prediction, so this thesis puts forward a new method about the definition of discourse.In this new method , the definition of discourse is related to the data distribution of current category. Because the distribution of the sample data is considered, so the accuracy of intervals is improved.Finally,in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method, this paper predicts the enrollment Alabama, and the result of experiments show that this method has good prediction effect.