基于实时监测和例行试验数据的电力变压器状态动态评估方法

摘要

Considering the difference and complementarity between reflecting the current status of power transformers through on-line monitoring and preventive test data,a dynamic assessment method of power transformer status is proposed.Based on a dynamic index evaluation system,the timeliness-based score function is presented for each status variable.Meanwhile,based on the history samples and dynamic assessment time,the weights of the score functions are calculated by the combination of confidence of association rules and time-varying parameters.The weight varying formulas are introduced to balance the uneven degradation levels of comprehensive status indices.Results of experimental data show that the correct rate of the proposed method is 92.1％.%考虑到实时监测和例行试验数据反映变压器当前状态的差异性和互补性,提出了一种电力变压器状态动态评估方法.在构建动态评估指标体系的基础上,提出了具有时效特征的单项状态量评分函数;同时基于历史实例样本和变压器状态实时评估时间,提出了融合关联规则置信度与时变参数的单项状态量权重计算方法.针对综合状态指标劣化不均衡问题,引入变权重公式调整权重系数.外样本实例计算结果表明所提方法的正确率达92.1％.