最优组合预测方法在船舶电推系统中的应用

摘要

In order to forecast the running status of marine electric propulsion system the optimal com-bined prediction method was adopted. Based on analyzing each single forecasting method and targeting at minimizing quadratic sum of forecasting errors, the optimal combined prediction model was obtained. Based on the optimal combined prediction method, the prediction model of marine electric propulsion sys-tem was built and the mainly running characters' measure data were simulated. Through comparing the certain ship' s operation data with simulation data, the results show that the optimal combination predic-tion method availably reduces forecasting errors and has the certain superiority.%为了进行船舶电力推进系统的运行状态预测,采用了最优组合预测方法. 该方法是在分析单项预测方法的基础上,以预测误差平方和最小为目标进行优化,形成最优组合预测模型. 应用最优组合预测方法建立了船舶电力推进系统的预测模型,结合主要运行参数的实测数据进行了预测模型仿真. 通过对比实船数据和仿真结果,表明采用最优组合预测方法可有效减小预测误差,具有一定的优越性.