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第三产业碳强度驱动因素分解研究--以北京市为例

         

摘要

This paper adopted Divisia decomposition to analyze carbon emission intensity of various sectors of the tertiary industry in Beijing during the period 2005-2010. This research aimed to explore three key drivers of carbon intensity--energy structure, energy ef iciency and industry structure, and to estimate the contribution of three factors to the carbon intensity. The results showed that:energy ef iciency was the main driving factor leading to the continuous rise of carbon intensity;energy structure had positive ef ects on the rise of carbon intensity;the internal optimization of industry structure lack of continuity, which leaded to the contribution to carbon intensity fluctuated, but overal , it played a negative role in the rise of carbon emission. In addition, the carbon intensity of various sectors of the tertiary industry had continued to rise general y. Because of the low proportion of low-carbon high-tech industry and the smal proportion of high-tech and high value-added products in the tertiary industry, the lag of low-carbon technologies was an important constraint for carbon emission reduction of the tertiary industry in Beijing.%本文采用Divisia分解法对2005-2010年期间北京市第三产业各行业碳排放强度进行了分析,探讨影响碳强度的3个关键驱动因素:能耗结构、能源使用效率以及行业结构,并分别测算对碳强度贡献程度。结果表明:能源使用率是导致碳强度持续攀升的主要驱动因素,能耗结构对碳强度均是正向贡献;行业结构内部优化缺乏足够的连贯性,导致对碳强度的贡献呈现波动性,但总体上对碳排放强度上升起到一定负向驱动作用。此外,第三产业各行业的碳强度普遍呈持续上升趋势,且低碳、高新技术行业在第三产业所占比重相对较低,高技术、高附加值产品比重小,故低碳技术滞后是北京市第三产业碳减排的重要制约因素。

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