如何有效削减政府债务：保增长、调结构与稳金融

摘要

Based on sample data of 41 countries over the period from 2001 to 2011,this paper shed light on the effects of economic growth,upgrading of industrial structure and financial volatility on the re-duction of government debt by using system-GMM estimation.The empirical results showed that while both economic growth and the upgrading of industrial structure had a positive effect on government debt reduction,higher financial volatility was found to be negatively associated with government debt reduction and weakens the positive effects of economic growth and industrial upgrading on government debt reduc-tion as well.These conclusions suggested that,to reduce government debt in practice,both economic growth and structure adj ustment (especially the latter)should be pursued under the precondition of finan-cial stability to realize economic growth in the context of financial stability and economic structure optimi-zation.%本文基于41个国家2001—2011年的动态面板数据，采用系统 GMM估计研究了经济增长、产业结构升级和金融稳定对政府债务的影响。实证结果表明：经济增长和产业结构升级均有助于政府债务削减，且产业结构升级的作用要大于经济增长；与此同时，金融波动不仅对政府债务削减不利，还会通过边际效应削弱经济增长和产业结构升级在政府债务削减中的积极作用。上述结论意味着，在实践中，为有效削减政府债务，必须在确保金融稳定的前提下，坚持“保增长”和“调结构”双措并举，特别是充分发挥产业结构调整的积极作用，实现金融稳定和结构优化的经济增长。