The so-called "import inducing export" mechanism widely exists in traditional trade of goods. Considering the fact Chinese cultural trade has been in deficit for a long time, it is worth further in-vestigation whether this mechanism exists in culture trade. Using HS 6-bit code data of Chinese cultural trade during 1996—2013 and constructing dual margin indexes of cultural trade, this paper empirically finds that import has no significantly positive effect on the dual margins of export in cultural products. While import has certain insignificantly positive effect on export's expansion margin, it causes some nega-tive impacts on export's intensive margin. This paper also finds that export price has a significant effect on promoting export's intensive margin, but it has a negative inhibition effect on export's expansion margin, implying the existence of low quality bidding mode in Chinese cultural trade. Various robust checks also verify the above conclusions. Therefore, "import inducing export" mechanism does not exist in cultural trade. How to strengthen the missing mechanism and eliminate the inhibitory effect of current export mode on high-end export capacity is a key to rapid and sustained development of China's cultural trade.%文化贸易发展对于提升一国"软实力"和打造"贸易强国"具有重要意义.在工业品贸易领域广泛存在"进口引致出口"机制是中国货物出口奇迹产生的重要原因,该机制在文化贸易领域是否同样存在对于中国文化贸易发展具有深远意义.本文基于中国文化贸易微观产品层面六位码数据,对文化出口指标进行了二元边际结构性特征分解,实证分析发现:第一,总体来看,文化产品进口对出口没有显著的促进作用,即进口引致出口机制在中国文化贸易中并不存在;第二,文化产品进口对文化产品出口二元边际并不存在显著的引致效应,文化产品进口对集约边际甚至还有一定的抑制效应;第三,上述结论在不同的二元边际指标和持续期分样本估计中均成立,尤其是二元边际水平较高的核心文化产品和具有较长贸易持续期的产品样本;第四,细分不同类别来看,目前仅在图书及其他印刷品比较标准化的文化产品贸易中,可能出现了一定程度的进口引致出口效应.总体而言,进口引致出口机制在文化贸易中未能有效地发挥作用可能是导致中国文化贸易发展相对迟缓的重要原因,未来如何更好地发挥文化进口对出口的促进效应将是强化中国文化贸易发展的关键.
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