物流基础设施投资与经济增长关系研究--基于系统动力学与误差修正模型

摘要

In the paper, a System Dynamics Model is used to build and simulate the internal mechanism between logistics in-frastructure investment and economic growth in recent years in China. The study shows that it can promote economic growth by increasing logistics construction investment. Then an Error Correction Model is applied to analysis their quantitative rela-tionship. The results indicate that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China's logistics development and economic growth. And China's logistics infrastructure stocks have already been playing an important role at present. The paper suggests that the governments should continue to increase the logistics infrastructure investment and do their endeavor to improve the using efficiency of the existing logistics resources.%文章运用系统动力学模型对我国近年物流基础设施建设投资与经济增长之间的内在作用机制进行模型构建与拟合，得出增加物流基础设施投资可以促进经济增长，运用误差修正模型对物流建设投资与经济增长之间的内在关系进行定量分析，结果表明，物流基础建设与经济增长之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系，且目前我国物流基础设施存量已发挥作用，提出在继续增加物流基础设施投资的同时，要关注提高现有物流基础设施资源的使用效率。