上海市产业结构偏离度与经济增长关系的实证检验--基于一个新的产业结构偏离度指标

摘要

文章通过建立一个两部门的内生增长模型，根据实现平衡增长路径所需满足的条件，可得出一个相对合理的指标用来衡量产业结构以及各产业偏离度。然后应用该指标对上海市产业结构偏离度以及各产业偏离度与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验，希望能较真实地反映上海市产业结构以及各产业的发展情况与平衡增长路径要求目标的偏离程度。最后根据各产业偏离的方向和程度，有针对性地给出上海市产业结构调整的方向以及具体的路径选择，具有一定的现实意义。%By establishing an endogenous growth model which consists of two sectors, the conditions required by the bal⁃anced growth path and a relatively reasonable index judging industrial structure and each industry deviation are given. And then based on the new index,an empirical study on industrial structure and each industry deviation,and the relationship be⁃tween them and economic growth is carried out so as to reflect the real deviation of industrial structure and each industry from the targets required by the balanced growth path in Shanghai. Finally,according to the direction and degree of deviation of each industry,the study is of a certain practical significance to confirm the direction of industrial structure adjustment and se⁃lect a specific adjustment path in Shanghai.