基于三角模糊数的配电网项目投资效益评价方法

摘要

配电网项目投资涉及面广，投资规模逐年加大，在投资规划中占有很大比重，但影响投资收益的因素繁杂多样，使得电网企业面临诸多潜在的投资风险。配电网项目投资的科学评价将是防范投资市场风险的有效途径。基于配电网投资结构有针对性地提出了影响电网发展的主要因素，分别从投资收益及决策两个方面建立评价指标体系，并提出了基于三角模糊数的配电网投资评价模型，实现定性与定量评价相结合。实例验证表明，该评价方法能够客观有效地反映当前投资水平，对配电网投资规划及投资评估有重要价值。%Distribution network investment involve a wide range of aspects,and the amount of investment has been increasing year by year which is making it account for a large proportion in the whole investment plan.However, the investment benefit is influenced by various kinds of factors,which make the power grid companies face numerous potential investment risk.Scientific evaluation of distribution network investment will be an effective way to avoid investment market risk.The main factors affecting the development of power grid are presented based on the investment structure of distribution network,the evaluation index system is established from both investment returns and decision respectively,and the model of investment evaluation for distribution network based on triangular fuzzy number is proposed,realizing the combination of evaluation between qualitative and quantitative.Practical example shows that the evaluation method is objective and effective,which could reflect the current level of investment and have significant value for distribution network investment planning and investment assessment.