Energy Outlook in East Africa Region and the Carbon Emissions for Conventional En-ergy Projection (Part I)

摘要

In this investigation, we focus on the current energy sources and future projects situation in East Africa up to 2040. Electricity generation potential of energy mix and electrical capacity will be analyzed. For both electricity generation and electrical capacity, the data source shows that some forms of energies such bio-energy, solar PV, etc. will contribute less as well as with insignificant contribution of nuclear energy. Whereas hydro is dominating comparing with gas, oil, coal, solar PV, bio-energy and other renewables energies. From 2000 up to 2012, hydro and oil were only the one source of electricity generation. Starting from 2020, other forms of energies will appear and continue to increase at different rate. The international trade of electricity in this region will appear in 2020 and continue to increase as predicted by the data. Up to 2040, hydro will play a big role in electricity generation with other renewable energy sources, such as coal, oil, Gas, bio- energy and solar PV that will continue to increase at different rate. The share of solar PV in energy generation will slowly increase compared to other sources. The capacity of hydro and renewable energy sources will be high compared with other sources of energy such as bioenergy, coal, oil, PV solar, and gas. The results show also that bio-energy will increase slowly in electricity generation in comparison with other source of energies. The present report shows that oil will continue to emit a lot carbon dioxide compared to gas and coal. The emission of CO2 from total final consumption (TFC) of oil will continue to be high in comparing with CO2 emission from power generation (PG) of oil. But the emission of carbon dioxide from power generation of coal from 2025 until 2040 will be high compared with emission of CO2 generated from FTC of coal. In this period, the emission from TFC for gas will remain insignificant. The total final consumption emission of oil in general will dominate other emissions from both coal and gas. Due to this high emission of CO2, new technologies should be introduced in order to reduce gas pollution from TFC.