Analysis and Forecast of China’s Grain Supply and Demand Quality Grade Structural Balance

摘要

Based on the analysis of China’s grain production and demand quality grade, this paper uses the non-equidistance GM (1,1) model and the inference algorithm to predict the structural balance of the supply and demand grades of China’s four major grain crops. The results show that the supply and demand for wheat, corn and rice can maintain a quantitative balance. While, it’s difficult to achieve a quality grade balance in wheat and rice and keep a supply and demand balance in terms of quantity and quality of soybean. Simultaneously, the supply of premium grade corn is greater than the demand. The analysis and prediction results can reflect the existing structural balance matter of grain supply and demand at different quality grades in China, and provide theoretical basis for governments to formulate relevant policies.