不确定性在管道流动安全评价中的研究进展

摘要

油气集输管网的设计首先要保证管道内介质流动的安全性,由于与原油管道输送相关的原油物性参数、运行参数、环境因素具有很强的不确定性,因此传统的确定性方法进行管道流动安全性评价有很多局限性.回顾了国内学者对管道输送相关参数不确定性研究现状,并对油气储运工程领域不确定性研究的发展趋势进行了探讨,从而为管道流动安全性评价提供了理论基础.%The design of oil and gas gathering and transportation network must first ensure the safety of the medium flow in the pipeline. Due to the uncertainty of crude oil physical parameters, operating parameters and environmental factors related to crude oil pipeline transportation, traditional deterministic methods have many limitations to the safety assessment of pipeline flow. In this paper, research status of uncertainties in pipeline transportation was reviewed, and the development trend of uncertainties in the field of oil and gas storage and transportation engineering was discussed, in order to provide a theoretical basis for pipeline flow safety evaluation.