建筑业碳排放预测与减排策略研究

摘要

以行业视角下的平均碳排放量为依据，将我国30个省市划分为低、中、高三个建筑业碳排放区域。针对不同的区域，分别运用可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型和灰色预测模型对直接和间接碳排放量进行预测，并结合区域碳排放特点，从建筑材料和经济发展目标方面对建筑业节能减排提出发展策略。%According to the average carbon emission from the industry perspective,divides the 30 provinces in China into low,medium and high emission area. For different regions,predicts the future direct and indirect carbon emission by the stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence and technology(STIRPAT) model and the grey prediction model respectively. Combined with regional carbon emission characteristics, puts forward common and differentiated development strategies from two aspects of construction materials and development planning.