大型公寓建设项目风险评估模型仿真研究

摘要

To assess the project risk accurately can reduce the risk of the construction process of large apartment projects.In the risk assessment of apartment construction project,it needs to calculate the comprehensive risk according to the weight of the project risk assessment.The traditional evaluation method is based on the sort results to complete the assessment,which cannot calculate the weight of risk assessment set,and reduces the risk assessment accuracy of the apartment construction project.This paper proposes a risk assessment method for large apartment construction projects by using the risk matrix and fuzzy set theory.The fuzzy set theory is used to construct the project risk fuzzy evaluation matrix,and to calculate the weight of the project risk assessment set.The entropy weight coefficient of project risk factors is determined,and the comprehensive risk degree of large apartment construction projects is calculated.Based on the calculation results,a risk assessment model for large apartment construction projects is constructed.The simulation results show that the improved algorithm can accurately and effectively assess the risk of large apartment construction projects.%对大型公寓建设项目风险进行准确评估,可降低大型公寓项目建设过程的风险.在公寓建设项目风险评估中,需要依据项目风险评定集权重,计算大型公寓建设项目的综合风险度,而传统的评估方法是通过获取对影响建设项目风险的因素指标进行量化处理并排序,依据排序结果完成评估,不能对风险评定集权重进行准确计算,降低了公寓建设项目风险评估的准确性.提出一种采用风险矩阵和模糊集理论的大型公寓建设项目评估方法.先融合模糊集理论构建项目风险模糊评估矩阵,计算项目风险评定集权重,确定项目风险因素的熵权系数,并计算大型公寓建设项目的综合风险度,以计算结果为依据,构建大型公寓建设项目风险评估模型.仿真结果表明,改进算法可以准确地对大型公寓建设项目风险进行准确有效评估.