航空战时弹药保障供应能力优化预测仿真

摘要

It can improve the efficiency of the current Aviation Ammunition Support System in the aviation wartime ammunition support supply.Supply capacity prediction,the optimal weights should be regression calculation of Aerial Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity,and to obtain the state vector of Aviation Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity of the optimal prediction,but the relationship between the traditional methods based on the ration of ammunition to classify the type of ammunition,using grey correlation algorithm of Aviation Ammunition demand Group supply capacity prediction model but,cannot use the optimal weight regression prediction of Aviation Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity of state vector optimal prediction,prediction error problems.An optimal forecasting model of ammunition support supply capability in aviation Wartime Based on Bayesian theory is proposed.The model to obtain the effect of air ammunition support in wartime supply capacity variable set,the formation of Aviation Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity through the regression model,the maximum likelihood theory for Aerial Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity of the optimal weight regression prediction model,conditional probability distribution with optimal weights of sparse Bei Juliu prediction model theory to give a priori,predictive value distribution security is given on the basis of aviation ammunition consumption targets,with the state vector of Aviation Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity factors of Aviation Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity,the state vector combined with Calman filtering theory of Aviation Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity of the optimal prediction,the formation of Aviation Ammunition Support in wartime supply capacity optimization model.The simulation results show that the proposed model can effectively predict the future stage of aviation ammunition supply capacity in wartime,and the prediction accuracy is better,and the utility model is more practical.%对航空战时弹药保障供应能力优化预测,可提升现行航空弹药保障体系效能.进行供应能力预测时,应计算航空战时弹药保障供应能力回归预测的最优权值,获取并对航空战时弹药保障供应能力的状态向量进行最优预测,但是传统方法依据弹药的配给关系对弹药类型进行分类,利用灰色关联算法结合航空弹药需求量组供应能力预测模型,但是不能利用回归预测的最优权值对航空战时弹药保障供应能力状态向量进行最优预测,存在预测误差大的问题.提出一种基于贝叶斯理论的航空战时弹药保障供应能力优化预测模型.模型先获取影响航空战时弹药保障供应能力的自变量集合,组建航空战时弹药保障供应能力回归模型,通过最大似然理论求解航空战时弹药保障供应能力回归预测模型的最优权值,结合稀疏贝叶斯理论对预测模型的最优权值赋予先验的条件概率分布,在此基础上给出航空弹药保障的消耗目标预测值分布,得到随着航空战时弹药保障供应能力影响因素作用的航空战时弹药保障供应能力的状态向量,结合卡尔曼滤波理论对航空战时弹药保障供应能力的状态向量进行最优预测,组建航空战时弹药保障供应能力优化预测模型.仿真结果表明,所提模型能够有效预测出未来阶段的航空战时弹药保障供应能力,且预测精度较优,实用性较强.