节日营销阵发效应下供应链网络结构稳定性分析

摘要

经过数据分析,发现在节日营销中顾客对商品的需求数量往往因节日的刺激而呈现明显的阵发效应,即非线性、间歇性批量增长.为研究这种需求阵发效应下供应链网络结构的稳定性,在Poisson模型的基础上,将供应链网络节点数的增长视为节点数批量到达,构造了新的网络节点数批量到达且呈指数增长的Poisson供应链网络模型,并利用平均场方法解析计算了节点的增长动态性特征.解析结果表明,在电商节日营销中,供应链网络度分布是稳定的,稳态度分布服从指数为1的幂律分布,并且非线性增长方式对于网络平均度分布的影响差异较小.模型和相关结论对电商企业在正确运用节日营销手段的同时,防范网络崩溃风险具有十分重要的启示.%In the past, some large electricity providers for marketing through traditional festivals, but the effect gradually achieve Extreme.2009, Jack Ma created "Nov.11" and named "Singles day" and carried out marketing.The results amazed us.Different from the traditional festivals, the created holiday marketing is new trend and new field to research.This paper constructs a network of nodes and showed a batch arrival Poisson supply chain network model based on the exponential growth of the Poisson network model and analyze the nodes growth dynamic with a mean-field approach.The analysis shows the power-law exponent on stabilization distribution of attitudeis 1,furthermore, the numerical results and the theoretical values are in good agreement.