基于资产负债表的中国宏观政策选择研究

摘要

What kind of macro -policy is taken is related to a country′s balance sheet situation .From 2002 to 2011 , China′s national balance sheet is in good condition , and special and general debt ratios of government are lower than the international warning line .Despite China′s general debt ratio rises continuously , but still no more than 50%, which de-termines that the choice of China′s future macroeconomic policy is moderately expansionary fiscal policies , neutral mone-tary policy.Among them, the expansionary fiscal should shift from government investment to subsidies and tax reduc -tion, and in the meantime reduce State -owned shares to enrich the social insurance fund; neutral monetary policy should be used to strengthen banking supervision and control risk , while to accelerate internationalization of RMB , and to expand foreign investment , and to control inflation brought about by expansionary fiscal policy .%一国采取什么样的宏观政策和这个国家的资产负债表状况密切相关。2002至2011年中国国家资产负债表总体状况良好，政府的狭义负债率、广义负债率都低于国际警戒线。尽管中国广义负债率水平不断提高，但仍然不超过50％，这决定了未来中国宏观政策的选择是适度扩张的财政政策、中性的货币政策。其中，扩张性财政要从政府投资为主，转向以补贴和减税为主，并减持国有股份以充实社会保险基金；中性货币政策以加强对银行监管和控制风险为主，同时加快人民币国际化、扩大对外投资，控制扩张财政带来的通货膨胀。