我国农村剩余劳动力转移影响因素研究

摘要

This paper analyzes the relationship between urban and rural expected income gap and the flow will by intro -ducing Todaro population transfer model of property income , and establishes logit and probit regression model using flow factors questionnaire data of Suiling County migrant workers .The results show the empirical analysis results are basically consistent with that of Todaro population transfer model with introduction property income .Among them , the property in-come has a positive role on the rural labor force transfer , but it is minimum compared with transfer cost and migrant workers′sort income.This shows that the analysis paradigm of Todaro population shift model basically accords with cur -rent actual condition of labor transfer in China;but from a dynamic point of view , with the increase of farmers′property income, its influence extent and direction of action may change .%本文采用引入财产性收入的托达罗人口转移模型分析城乡预期收入差距与流动意愿的关系，利用绥棱县农民工流动影响因素调查问卷数据建立logit和probit回归模型，结果表明本次实证分析得到的结果与引入财产性收入的托达罗人口转移模型分析得到的结果基本一致。其中，财产性收入对农村劳动力转移具有正向作用，但在转移成本、外出打工收入、财产性收入三个影响因素排序上，财产性收入最小。这说明托达罗人口转移模型的分析范式仍然基本符合目前我国劳动力转移的实际情况；但从动态的角度看，随着农民财产性收入的增加，其影响程度和作用方向上可能发生变化。