货币政策与财政政策互动及效果--兼两种价格决定机制下的比较

摘要

采用施加符号约束的SVAR方法，分别在两种价格主导区制下对经济周期冲击、货币政策冲击和财政政策冲击进行识别。研究发现：在长期，政府往往通过利率渠道而非数量渠道为赤字融资；在短期，由于财政政策和货币政策是替代的，当政府承诺低通胀而紧缩货币后，财政赤字扩张的倾向将会对“低通胀承诺”构成威胁；从政策搭配效果来看，当通胀较为严重时采取“双紧”的政策对抑制通货膨胀是合理的，有利于减弱财政赤字自发扩张对货币紧缩政策产生的抵消作用。%Based on the SVAR with sign restriction, this paper identifies business cycle shock, monetary policy shock and fiscal policy shock under two kinds of different pricing mechanisms. Research show in the long term, government tends to use interest rate rather than M2 to finance the deficits;in the short term, because fiscal policy and monetary pol⁃icy are substitute, therefore, when the government promises to maintain a low inflation rate by restricting money supply, the spontaneous expansion of the deficit will be a threat to low inflation commitment;from the point of view of policy mix, when the inflation is severe, the “double tight” policy is reasonable, which is conducive to reduce the offset effect of spontaneous expansion of the fiscal deficit on monetary tightening policy.