The influence of human activity and precipitation change on mid-long term evolution of landslide and debris flow disasters

摘要

After defining landslide and debris flow,human activity,and precipitation indices,using with landslide and debris flow disaster data in low-latitude plateau of China,reflecting human activity and precipitation data,the influence of human activity and precipitation on mid-long term evolution of landslide and debris flow was studied with the wavelet technique.Results indicate that mid-long evolution of landslide and debris flow disaster trends to increase 0.9 unit every year,and presents obvious stage feature.The abrupt point from rare to frequent periods took place in 1993.There is significant in-phase resonance oscillation between human activity and landslide and debris flow frequency on a scale of 11–16 years,in which the variation of human activity occurs about 0.2–2.8 years before landslide and debris flow variation.Thus,the increase of landslide and debris flow frequency in low latitude plateau of China may be mainly caused by geo-environmental degradation induced by human activity.After the impact of human activity is removed,there is significant in-phase resonance oscillation between landslide and debris flow frequency and summer rainfall in low-latitude plateau of China in quasi-three-year and quasi-six-year scales,in which the variation of summer precipitation occurs about0.0–0.8 years before landslide and debris flow variation.Summer precipitation is one of important external causes which impacts landslide and debris flow frequency in low-latitude plateau of China.The mid-long term evolution predicting model of landslide and debris flow disasters frequency in low-latitude plateau region with better fitting and predicting ability was built by considering human activity and summer rainfall.