Simulation abilities of different global climate models (GCMs) are different for a specific region. To select the applicable GCMs to project climate change in the Yangtze River basin, observed climate data from 1961 to 2008 were used to compare the 12 GCMs from IPCC-AR4. The results show that MIUB_ECHO_G model had better simulation ability for precipitation than the rest GCMs, and NCAR_CCSM3 model had better simulation ability for temperature. Based on the projected data by the two models, future annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies for 2011-2050, relative to the reference period of 1971-2000, under the SRES-A2, -A 1 B, and -B 1 scenarios, were analyzed. Projected precipitation does not show obvious changing trends under the three different scenarios and projected temperature shows continuous increasing trends with an increasing range within 2 ℃.%利用长江流域1961-2008年观测气象资料,对IPCC第四次评估报告中12个全球气候模式及所有模式集合平均进行比较验证,结果表明:MIUB_ECHO_G模式对该地区降水模拟能力较强,NCAR_CCSM3模式对温度模拟效果较好.进一步利用MIUB_ECHO_G模式和NCAR_CCSM3模式结果在SRES-A2、-A1B、-B13种排放情景下的降水和温度数据,分析2011-2050年3种排放情景下长江流域降水和温度变化特征.结果表明,2011-2050年长江流域降水变化趋势不明显,温度呈增加趋势,增幅在2℃内.
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