利用卫星和台站观测的南极臭氧资料和NCEP/CAR再分析资料,分析了南极臭氧近年来的变化特征和影响因子,探讨了南极臭氧洞期间中山站臭氧突变过程与大气动力的作用.结果显示,平流层氯和溴的卤化物当量(EESC)和平流层温度是影响南极臭氧洞面积的关键因子.臭氧总量与EESC和平流层温度均具有显著相关,表明两站虽然都位于臭氧洞边缘,EESC和平流层温度对臭氧总量的变化仍然可以起决定性的作用,同时也验证了EESC参数在东南极大陆沿岸具有适用性.EESC的年代际变化与臭氧变化趋势相似,臭氧的年际变化与平流层温度关系密切.回归结果表明,2010年后臭氧洞面积逐渐减小,在2070年左右可能恢复到1980年前的水平,但其结果存在很大的不确定性.%Influencing factors, and variations and trends of Antarctic ozone hole in recent decades are analyzed, and sudden change processes of ozone at Zhongshan Station and the effect of atmospheric dynamic processes on ozone changes are also discussed by using the satellite ozone data and the ground-measured ozone data at two Antarctic stations as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and stratospheric temperature are two important factors influencing the ozone hole. The column ozone at Zhongshan and Syowa stations is significantly related to EESC and stratospheric temperature, which means that even though the two stations are both located on the edge of the ozone hole, EESC and stratospheric temperature still plays a very important role in column ozone changes, and mean while verifies that EESC is applicable on the coast of east Antarctic continent. Decadal changes in EESC are similar to those of the ozone hole, and interannual variations of ozone are closely related with stratospheric temperature. Based on the relation of EESC and ozone hole size, it can be projected that the ozone hole size will gradually reduce to the 1980's level from 2010 to around 2070. Of course there might exist many uncertainties in the projection, which therefore needs to be further studied.
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