In recent years, traffic congestion has emerged in many Chinese cities and threatened the sustainability of future urbanization in China. Based on the theory of system dynamics this paper establishes a model for congestion formation mechanism. It illustrates the misled understanding in conventional road-building policies with the purpose of anti-congestion, and analyzes the implication of the Downs Law under Chinese context. Then it introduces various domestic anti-congestion policies into the model and analyzes their consequences respectively. In conclusion, it criticizes the "road-building alike" and "rigid restriction" as unsustainable polices to relieve congestion, and recommends transit-oriented urban development policies which affect the traffic demand and supply simultaneously, and policies promoting transit and non-motorized transportation environment, and raising costs in private car use etc.%近年来,中国城市交通拥堵问题正严重威胁中国城镇化的健康发展.文章基于系统动力学理论,搭建中国城市交通拥堵的形成机制模型,剖析了畅通工程等传统“修路治堵”的思维误区,分析了当斯定律在当前中国城镇化背景下的具体内涵.并将目前热议的治堵政策措施引入系统动力学模型,分析各项措施对拥堵形成机制的影响,进而对限号等刚性政策和“类修路治堵”型措施的不可持续性进行了批判.最后,建议从城市规划的高度对交通需求“疏、堵”并置,将基础设施投资天平倾向改善公交慢行出行环境,坚持公交导向型开发土地政策,提高机动车出行成本,促进城市交通支持城镇化健康发展.
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