基于人工神经网络的重庆市中医药类卫生专业技术人员需求预测应用研究

摘要

Objective To predict the requirement about medical and health professionals of traditional Chinese medicine on the twelfth five year plan in Chongqing, and to provide some evidence to accelerate the development of traditional Chinese medicine in Chongqing. Methods Artificial neural network was used to establish the model to predict the requirement about medical and health professionals of traditional Chinese medicine. And the predictive effect was evaluated by RMSE and MAPE. Results The data re suits of requirement about medical and health personnel of traditional Chinese medicine from 2011 to 2013 in Chongqing were 28 864,30 373 and 30 400,respectively. Conclusion As for research data,the artificial neural network has good prediction perform ance in forecasting the requirement about medical and health professionals of traditional Chinese medicine.%目的 对重庆市"十二五"期间中医药类卫生专业技术人才需求进行科学预测,并提出相应解决措施,为加快该市中医药卫生事业的发展提供科学参考依据.方法 采用人工神经网络方法建立预测模型,对该市中医药卫生专业技术人员需求进行预测.采用均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)评价模型预测效果.结果 BP人工神经网络对该市2011～2013年中医药类卫生专业技术人员需求总数预测结果分别为:28 864、30 373、30 400人.结论 BP人工神经网络预测模型对研究数据具有较高的逼近能力及预测精度,采用人工神经网络预测该市中医药类卫生专业技术人员需求总数可以达到较好的预测效果.