The decoupling relationship between China’s economic growth and carbon emissions from the perspective of industrial structure

摘要

This study analyses the decoupling relationship between energy-related CO_(2) emissions and economic growth in China from 2000-2017 from the perspective of industrial structure using the LMDI method and Tapio decoupling model.The decoupling driving force was decomposed into emission,energy intensity,industrial structure,economic activity,and population factors.Studies have shown that the restructuring of China’s industries has not led to a significant increase in CO_(2) emissions.Specifically,from 2000 to 2017,China’s economic development and carbon emissions are generally in a weak decoupling state.Strong decoupling occurred from 2000 to 2001 and from 2013 to 2016.The industrial structure change has a substantial impact on the primary sector(agriculture),followed by the tertiary sector(services),while the impact on the secondary sector(industry)is negligible.The GDP contribution of the primary industry is small,but it is an indispensable guarantee for a country.With the development of agricultural mechanization and technology,human and animal power in this industry has been decreasing year by year,and large-scale planting has improved energy efficiency.The level of technology should be continuously strengthened to promote the decoupling of carbon emissions.The contribution of the secondary industry to GDP is around 40%,but the secondary industry accounts for more than 80%of CO_(2) emissions,mainly caused by the use of fossil energy.In 2017,fossil energy still accounted for about 86.2%of China’s energy consumption,so fossil energy remains the most critical energy source for China’s economic development.Coal,in turn,accounts for the largest share of fossil energy consumption.Therefore,emphasis should be placed on increasing technological innovation and conversion from fossil to non-fossil energy sources.The Chinese government considers the service industry a new engine for sustainable social and economic development.The contribution of the tertiary sector to GDP has increased from 2000 to 2017,followed by resource and environmental problems.Although the current share of CO_(2) emissions directly caused by the tertiary sector is not high,as the tertiary sector continues to grow,plans to reduce the decoupling of carbon emissions from the tertiary sector should be made in advance.