Using a variance decomposition model, we investigated the impacts of China's tea export geographic concentration on tea export income during 2000-2008. The results showed that China's tea export concentrated in Moraga, American and Russia markets and it lowered China's tea export instability while export concentrated in Japanese and West Africa markets increased China's export instability. Moraga and Japanese markets are very important and they respectively become the main reasons of stability and instability. The counterfactual experiments of this paper indicated that the decreasing geographic concentration lead to little changes in China's tea export instability(-4.3~7.8%), while the Japanese market contributed to more than 30% of the export income instability. These findings meant that the key to stabilize China's tea export was not to take market diversification strategy, but to stabilize Japanese market.%利用方差分解模型,分析2000～2008年中国茶叶出口的地理集中度及其对茶叶出口收入的影响.结果显示,茶叶出口集中于摩洛哥、美国、俄罗斯市场降低了出口的不稳定性,而出口集中于日本和西非市场则增加了出口不稳定性.其中,摩洛哥和日本市场尤为重要,分别成为中国茶叶出口收入稳定和不稳定的主要原因.利用反事实的模拟试验,结果表明,地理集中度下降对中国茶叶出口不稳定性的影响不大(-4.3～7.8％),而日本市场贡献了出口收入不稳定的30％以上.这些意味着,稳定茶叶出口收入的关键在于稳定日本市场,而不是采取市场多元化策略.
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