利用TLE数据分析LEO卫星轨道异常的新方法-综合判据法

摘要

及时准确地发现在轨卫星的轨道异常意义重大.通过有效的异常算法,能够找出发生轨道异常的碎片或航天器,为空间碎片碰撞预警系统分析和验证碰撞事件提供数据支持.通过对利用TLE(Two Line Elements)数据分析LEO在轨卫星轨道异常的方法研究,提出了一个利用单个卫星相邻根数时间差控制加综合判据的判别方法.分析表明,相对于取单一因素阈值的判别方法,综合判据法能够最大限度地减少漏判,并且保持相对较高的判断准确率.%Finding the orbital abnormal of orbiting satellite accurately and in time has great meanings. The presented method can find the orbital abnormal of debris or spacecraft effectively, which provide data supports to analyse and verify the collision event computed by space debris collision avoidance system. The orbital abnormal also includes the orbit maneuver and other orbit change.This paper discussed how to analyse the orbital abnormal of LEO satellites using TLE data. Then,a method of using the satellite adjacent elements plus compositive criterion are presented. The basic idea of compositive criterion method is to get each sub criterion and turnover rate using a certain period data of satellites, and each satellite has its own criterion instead of using an settled criterion to all satellites. Analysis showed that compared to using a single element threshold method, the compositive criterion method decreases the missing discrimination and also has a high accuracy of right discrimination. This paper also briefly analyzed other kinds of orbit using the same method.