佛山市南海区儿童医疗服务资源需求预测

摘要

Objectives To analyze and predict the demand of pediatric service resources in Nanhai district of Fos-han prefecture,and to provide theoretical basis for allocating pediatric service resources.Methods Prediction model was established in accordance with the method of time series analysis.The model was used to predict the number of live birth from 2014 to 2020.The number of children aged 0~14 years in 201 6 and 2020 were estimated by accumu-lated number of live birth.The standard resources allocation was used to predict the pediatric service resources de-mand in 201 6 and 2020 in Nanhai.Results The number of children aged 0~14 years in 201 6 and 2020 should reach 436 700 and 527 500,meanwhile,the number of pediatric bed in Nanhai in 201 6 and 2020 should reach 1 310 and 1 583,and the addition of pediatric physicians was at least 122 in 201 6 and 187 in 2020 more than that in 2013.Conclusions The pediatric service resources demand will increase rapidly in Nanhai in the next few years.It is important to plan and allocate the child health resources,to meet the needs of the target population.%目的：分析和预测广东省佛山市南海区儿科服务资源需求，为医疗机构制定资源配置规划提供依据。方法按照时间序列分析方法建立预测模型，预测南海区2014—2020年各年度的活产数，根据活产数累加值预测2016年和2020年南海区0~14岁儿童数。参考儿科资源配置标准预测南海区2016年和2020年儿童医疗服务资源需求量。结果预测估计南海区2016年0~14岁儿童数约为43.67万人，需要儿科床位约1310张，需要在2013年基础上至少增加儿科专科医生122人。至2020年南海区0~14岁儿童预估值为52.75万人，需要儿科床位约1583张，需要在2013年基础上至少增加儿科专科医生187人。结论南海区在未来几年中，儿童医疗服务资源需求仍将迅速增加。应合理规划和配置儿童医疗服务资源，满足目标人群的需求。