Dynamic analysis of spatial convergence of green total factor productivity in China's primary provinces along its Belt and Road Initiative

摘要

This paper focuses on China's primary provinces along its Belt and Road Initiative,measures and analyses the provincial green total factor productivity (GTFP) development by GML index based on SBM directional distance function,discusses the temporal evolution characteristics of spatial convergence of the provincial GTFP under multiple spatial weight matrices,and estimates the net effect of China's Belt and Road Initiative on the development gap of provincial GTFP by regression discontinuity.The research shows that the provincial GTFP is generally good while the internal gap is relatively large.There is spatial absolute βconvergence and condition βconvergence in provincial GTFP,and the convergence speed has been signifcantly accelerated since the construction of China's Belt and Road Initiative.The current low economy level and infrastructure allocation efficiency of primary provinces restrict the GTFP development,while government expenditure has promoted the GTFP development,trade between provinces and countries along China's Belt and Road Initiative is negative to GTFP.China's Belt and Road Initiative has significantly narrowed the gap of provincial GTFP development with the net effect of-0.016.