对成本风险较高的先进制造业,将送达时间作为连续随机变量,以供应和生产系统总成本期望最小为目标,分不同情况建立了各项成本期望随供应物流能力配置量变化的模型,并分析物流利润率对制造企业最优供应物流能力配置的影响.算例分析说明:增加物流能力配置量可有效降低系统平均总成本;运载工具故障概率越小,总成本期望在增加物流能力配置时收敛越快;物流的超高利润率会使制造企业最优物流能力配置小于系统整体的最优物流能力配置.%For the advanced manufacturers with high risk costs, the paper takes the arrival time as continuous random variable and least mean of the total cost of supply and manufacturing system as objective to establishes the mean value model of each cost as supply logistics provision changes under different situations to determine the optimal supply logistics provision. It analyzes the effect of logistics profit margin to the optimal supply logistics provision for manufactures. The example shows more supply logistics provision can effectively reduce the average total cost; the total cost mean converges faster if the vehicle failure probability is less; the optimal supply logistics provision of manufacture will be less than that of the whole system due to extra high profit margin of logistics.
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