ObjectiveTo estimate the value of serum soluble scavenger receptor CD163 (sCD163) to the prognosis of patients with stroke associated pneumonia (SAP).Methods A prospective study was conducted. The clinically suspected SAP patients admitted to Department of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and Emergency ICU (EICU) in Zhejiang Province Zhuji City Chinese Medicine Hospital from February 2014 to January 2015 were all enrolled. According to clinical pneumonia severity index (PSI), they were divided into SAP group and non SAP group according to the presence or absence of SAP, the patients of SAP group were subdivided into mild SAP group (PSI grade Ⅰ-Ⅲgrade) and severe SAP groups (PSI grade Ⅳ-Ⅴ grade) and according to the 28-day prognosis, the patients were subdivided into hospitalized death group and survival group. The clinical data were collected, including gender, age, history of stroke presence or absence, present stroke pattern, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (NIHSS) on the day of stroke suspect diagnosis, Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ) score, clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS), PSI score, body temperature, result of chest X-ray film, oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2), result of sputum culture, serum levels of white blood cell (WBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in a period of 7 days after the suspected diagnosis, PCT, sCDl63 levels on days 1, 3, 5, 7 days, length of stay in ICU, the total time of hospitalization and 28-day survival situation, etc. The ability of each index to evaluate the prognosis of SAP was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve). The risk factors influencing the prognosis of SAP patients were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis.Results ① Seventy-eight patients were finally enrolled in the study, 44 patients were diagnosed as SAP, 34 were non SAP. In 44 patients with SAP, there were 28 cases of severe SAP and 16 cases of mild SAP. On the first day of the suspected diagnosis, the NIHSS score [13 (7, 22) vs. 8 (4, 17), the CPIS score [6 (4, 9) vs. 4 (3, 5), sCD163 [mg/L: 0.80 (0.59, 1.32) vs. 0.33 (0.22, 0.46)], CRP [mg/L: 84.2 (50.8, 114.9) vs. 51.4 (26.2, 79.9)] and 28-day mortality [38.6% (17/44) vs. 11.8% (4/34)] in SAP group were significantly higher than those in non SAP group (allP < 0.05), and other basic indexes between the two groups were all of no statistical significant differences (allP > 0.05). ② The levels of sCD163 reached the peak value on the third day after the suspected diagnosis among SAP group and non SAP group, mild SAP group and severe SAP group, survival group and death group and then began to fall; the levels of sCD163, WBC, CRP, PCT within 7 days in SAP, severe SAP and death groups were higher than those in non SAP, mild SAP and survival groups (allP < 0.05). ③ROC curve analysis indicated: sCDl63 showed a better capacity for evaluating the 28-day prognosis of SAP [ROC curve (AUC) =0.673, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.515-0.807, sensitivity and specificity were 41.2% and 96.3% respectively and the cut-off was 2.65 mg/L]. However, the levels of other inflammatory indexes and scores on the first day after the suspected diagnosis had no value for early prognosis of SAP. The multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the level of sCD163 on the first day after the suspected diagnosis was the independent risk factor of death in hospital of SAP patients [dominance ratio (OR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.06-1.52,P < 0.05]. Age (OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 1.01-1.06,P = 0.015), NIHSS score (OR = 2.86, 95%CI = 1.64-4.92,P = 0.010), CPIS score (OR = 1.52,95%CI = 1.28-1.90,P < 0.001) and APACHEⅡ score (OR = 2.06, 95%CI = 1.53-3.07,P < 0.001) were also the risk factors of influencing the death of patients with SAP.Conclusions Early sCD163 level is an independent risk factor in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with SAP, and it has a certain value for the prognosis of SAP.%目的：分析血清可溶性清道夫受体CD163（sCD163）对卒中相关性肺炎（SAP）患者预后评估的价值。方法选择2014年2月至2015年1月入住浙江省诸暨市中医医院重症加强治疗病房（ICU）和急诊ICU（EICU）所有临床疑诊的SAP患者。将患者按是否伴有SAP分为SAP组和非SAP组，再依据临床肺炎严重指数（PSI）将SAP组患者分为轻症SAP组（PSI评分Ⅰ～Ⅲ级）和重症SAP组（PSI评分Ⅳ～Ⅴ级），按28 d预后分为住院死亡组与存活组。收集患者的性别、年龄、既往有无卒中病史、本次脑卒中类型、疑诊当天美国卫生院卒中研究量表（NIHSS）评分、格拉斯哥昏迷评分（GCS）、急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分系统Ⅱ（APACHEⅡ）评分、临床肺部感染评分（CPIS）、PSI评分、体温、X线胸片结果、氧合指数（PaO2/FiO2）、痰培养结果、疑诊7 d内血炎症指标〔白细胞计数（WBC）、C-反应蛋白（CRP）、降钙素原（PCT）、sCD163〕水平、ICU住院时间、总住院时间和28 d存活情况等临床资料。通过受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）分析各指标评估SAP预后的能力。通过多因素logistic回归分析法分析影响SAP患者预后的危险因素。结果①共有78例患者纳入研究，最终确诊为SAP（SAP组）44例，非SAP（非SAP组）34例。44例SAP患者中重症SAP 组28例，轻症SAP 组16例。疑诊1 d SAP组 NIHSS评分〔分：13（7，22）比8（4，17）〕、CPIS评分〔分：6（4，9）比4（3，5）〕、血sCD163〔mg/L：0.80（0.59，1.32）比0.33（0.22，0.46）〕、CRP〔mg/L：84.2（50.8，114.9）比51.4（26.2，79.9）〕和28 d病死率〔38.6%（17/44）比11.8%（4/34）〕均明显高于非SAP组（均P＜0.05），两组其余一般资料比较差异均无统计学意义（均P＞0.05）。② SAP组和非SAP组、重症SAP组和轻症SAP组、存活组和死亡组血清sCD163水平均于疑诊3 d达高峰，随后逐渐下降；7 d内每天不同时间点SAP组、重症SAP组、死亡组sCD163、WBC、CRP、PCT水平均较非SAP组、轻症SAP组和存活组明显升高（均P＜0.05）。③ ROC曲线分析显示：疑诊1 d血sCD163能预测患者28 d预后〔ROC曲线下面积（AUC）＝0.673，95%可信区间（95%CI）＝0.515～0.807，敏感度和特异度为41.2%和96.3%，临界值为2.65 mg/L〕，疑诊1 d其他炎性指标水平及评分对SAP无预测价值。多因素logistic回归分析显示：疑诊1 d sCD163水平是SAP患者住院死亡的独立危险因素〔优势比（OR）值＝1.27，95%CI＝1.06～1.52，P＜0.05〕。年龄（OR＝1.04，95%CI＝1.01～1.06，P＝0.015）、NIHSS评分（OR＝2.86，95%CI＝1.64～4.92，P＝0.010）、CPIS评分（OR＝1.52，95%CI＝1.28～1.90，P＜0.001）、APACHEⅡ评分（OR＝2.06，95%CI＝1.53～3.07，P＜0.001）也是影响SAP患者死亡的危险因素。结论早期血清sCDl63水平是预测SAP患者28 d死亡的独立危险因素，对SAP的预后判断有一定价值。
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