Based on daily meteorological observations and annual spring phonological data from 1981 to 2009 of 10 national argometeorological stations in Shandong province, tendencies of climate and phenological changes and the relationship between phenophase and vaule of elements were analyzed using methods of linear and correlation analysis. The results showed that:( 1 )spring temperature significantly increased,and vapor in the spring tended to be higher in the last 30 years, (2) the woody plants' spring phonological records had universal to be premature. The rate of increase was between 0. 13 and 1.11 days per year, (3)in Shandong province, spring phenophae of woody plants showed significant negative correlation with spring temperature, accumulated temperature, and vapor pressure in March. The accumulated active temperature prior to the spring phenophase was one of the major contributing factors,and spring temperature increase and vapor pressure increase in March were potential causes for the phenophase to move up in the last 29 years.%利用山东省境内10个国家级农业气象观测站1981-2009年逐年春季物候序列和同期逐日气象资料,通过一元线性回归、相关分析和突变检验方法,分析了山东地区木本植物春季物候期的趋势变化特征及物候期对气候变化的响应关系.结果表明:(1)1980-2009年山东地区春季气温明显升高,春季水汽压呈增大趋势;(2)山东地区近29a的木本植物春季物候期普遍提前,提前的线性倾向率为0.13～1.11d·a-1;(3)山东地区木本植物春季物候期与其前期活动积温、春季气温和3月份水汽压呈负相关关系,物候前期的活动积温是诱发春季物候现象的重要因子,春季气温升高和3月份水汽压增大是近29a春季物候现象提前的可能原因.
展开▼
