自回归移动平均模型在医疗服务需求预测中的应用

摘要

Objective To fit the prediction model that suit to the time series data of the medical service demand. Methods Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to fit the change of numbers of discharged patients. Results The average numbers which will be 938.8 thousand of discharged patients of A-level tertiary hospital in 2020 were forecasted by this model. Conclusion The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model is applicable to fitting and predicting the time series of medical service demand. The estimation result shows that without the effect of external factors, the number of discharged patient of A-level tertiary hospital will keep increasing with the trend before 2009.%目的 拟合医疗服务需求时间序列资料的预测模型.方法 采用自回归移动平均模型对出院人次进行模型拟合.结果模型拟合得到的最优模型为一阶自回归移动平均模型,模型预测2020年某市三甲医院的出院总人次将为93.88万人次.结论 自回归移动平均模型适用于出院总人次时间序列模型拟合,预测结果显示,在没有外来干预因素影响的情况下,三甲医院出院总人次将会延续2009年以前的上升趋势继续上涨.