Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Climate and Economic-technical Factors on Grain Yield in Jilin Province from 1980 to 2008

摘要

Climate change is one of the most important challenges threatening agricultural grain yield and food security. Determining the factors influencing grain yield in Jilin Province and the weights of their contribution are a very important task, because Jilin Province is an important agriculture base in China. In this study, the accumulation factor sequence evaluating data method was used to analyze the climate and economic-technical factor contribution weights to grain yield and grain yield changes in each city of Jilin Province. Climate yield was also estimated to study the climate effect on the grain yield, and it was calculated in two ways:an improved algorithm and a traditional quadratic method. The results show that the climate and economic-technical factors have different contribution weights to grain yield in different cities in Jilin Province. The contribution weight of the climate factor to grain yield was 0.212-0.349, while that the economic-technical factor was 0.651-0.788. Furthermore, the changes of the climate factor contributing to grain yield changes accounted for 0.296-0.546, and the changes of the economic-technical factor accounted for 0.454-0.704. The weights of climate and economic-technical factor contributing to grain yield are very different between the eastern and western cities in Jilin Province, but their weights contributing to the grain yield change are similar in these cities. In general, the amount of fertilizer used per hectare (FUPH) is the main factor affecting grain yields and yield changes from 1980 to 2008. It is noted that when the FUPH growth rate stabilized after 1995, the effects of the climate factor on the grain yield become more obvious than before. The improved algorithm is effective for estimating climate yield in Jilin Province, and the climate yields were mostly between-500 kg/ha and 500 kg/ha, and showed a slightly rising trend in most cities.