信任、正式制度与中国对外贸易发展--来自全球65个国家的证据

摘要

This paper analyses the impact of trust and formal institution on China's foreign trade development by using 65 countries'panel data during the period of 2003-2011.The result shows:The trust level of host country has obvious posi-tive effect towards China's foreign trade;The institution distance of China and the host country will increase the transac-tion cost in international trade ,and will hamper the bilateral trade;Trust plays less important role for bilateral trade for OECD countries;Trust plays more important role for bilateral trade for non-OECD countries.Therefore ,China should re-form and adjust all kinds of formal institutions ,pay more attention on the construction of informal institutions ,improve the social trust level ,according to the effect of different institution factors.%本文利用2003-2011年间世界65个国家之间的面板数据，考察信任、正式制度对中国对外贸易发展的影响。研究结果表明：东道国的信任水平对中国的贸易流量有显著正向影响；中国与东道国的制度差距会增加国际贸易中的交易成本，不利于双边贸易往来；对OECD国家来说，东道国的正式制度对中国的贸易流量影响更为显著；对非OECD国家来说，东道国的信任水平对中国的贸易流量影响更为显著。因此，中国应根据不同制度因素的影响作用，对各种正式制度进行改革和调整，重视非正式制度建设，努力提升社会信任水平，促进对外贸易发展。