考虑负荷用电统计特性的需求响应潜力评估

摘要

A quantitative evaluation approach of demand response potential considering load statistical characteristics is proposed in order to conciliate further the desired attributes of accuracy and operability of solving demand response potential evaluation.Demand price-elasticity coefficients are achieved based on the principle of econometrics.Power demand is solved under some tariff level and incentive policy.Combined with load characteristic statistical model, demand response range of industrial, commercial and residential customers are analyzed.Demand response potential quantified forms load response envelope.Numerical results of Ningxia power grid corporation in 2014 demonstrate that the proposed model is feasible and effective.Load increase potential and decrease potential in Ningxia Autonomous Region reach respectively 30.2% and-31.3% of peak load and their mean values are respectively 28.1% and-28.0%.97 percent of demand response potential lies in industry customers, which proves that industry customers are the key of releasing potential.Its operability can be greatly improved, due to some objective conditions such as installed capacity and technology production processes, only with statistical parameters about load characteristics, without confidential process data of business, so that the difficulties of collecting information are reduced.%为提高需求响应潜力评估的可操作性,提出了考虑负荷用电统计特性的需求响应潜力量化评估方法.该方法基于计量经济学原理获得电力需求-价格弹性系数,量化电价水平和激励政策下的电力需求;结合行业负荷特性统计模型,分析工业、商业和居民用户的负荷响应范围;量化需求响应潜力,形成负荷响应包络线.以宁夏电网2014年数据为基础作算例验证,结果表明:所提模型可行有效,宁夏自治区2014年负荷增加潜力和减少潜力可占到高峰负荷的30.2%和-31.3%,均值分别为28.1%和-28.0%;需求响应潜力中约97%蕴含于工业用户,工业用户是负荷响应潜力释放的关键;所提模型可操作性大大提高,考虑了用户报装容量和工艺生产流程等客观条件,仅涉及到与行业负荷特性和用电特点相关的统计参数,不涉及行业机密的过程数据,数据获取难度降低.