全球非常规天然气发展趋势:国际市场融合与探采技术进步

摘要

自美国页岩气革命以来,非常规天然气开始大量涌入全球天然气市场,天然气市场分隔的历史格局将会被逐渐打破.天然气市场竞争日益激烈、市场流动性增强、天然气进口国议价能力增强,国际天然气市场正在走向融合.技术进步与政策支持推动全球非常规天然气供应不断增长:美国开发了水平钻井技术和水力压裂技术,不断的技术研发实现了开采效率的提高和开发成本的下降,2015年已从天然气进口国转向天然气出口国;澳大利亚积极探索浮式液化天然气(FLNG)技术,预计到2020年液化天然气的出口能力将跃居世界第一;中国页岩气开发技术的发展使得开采成本开始下降,已成为世界上第三个实现页岩气工业化生产的国家.其他多国如墨西哥、阿根廷、沙特阿拉伯、阿尔及利亚、南非、波兰等也在出台相关政策积极跟进非常规天然气的勘探开发.虽然近几年全球天然气市场相对低迷,非常规天然气开发进程遭遇了经济、技术、环境和政策上等不同程度的困难,但经验表明,技术进步、合理的运营模式、有利政策的激励和有效的资本重组与融合可成功规避国际天然气形势对非常规天然气产业造成的不利影响,全球非常规天然气发展势头依旧强劲.%Since the shale gas revolution in the United States,unconventional natural gas began to flow into the global natural gas market,the past separated natural gas market pattern will be gradually broken. The increasing competition in the market,the enhancement of the market liquidity and the increasing bargaining power of the natural gas importing countries mean that the international natural gas market is moving towards integration.Technical progress and policy support promote the global unconventional natural gas supply to grow continuously:the United States has developed the horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology,continuous technical research makes the increase of development efficiency and decrease of costs,the United States has transformed from natural gas importing country to exporting country;Australia is actively exploring floating liquefied natural gas(FLNG)technology,whose liquefied natural gas export capacity will be ranked first in the world by 2020;in China,the development of shale gas technology makes the cost of exploration began to decline,China has become the world's third country to achieve shale gas industrial production.Other countries such as Mexico,Argentina,Saudi Arabia,Algeria, South Africa and Poland are also actively following the unconventional natural gas exploration and development.Although the global natural gas market is relatively sluggish in recent years,and some unconventional natural gas development processes encountered varying degrees of difficulties in economy, technology,environment and policy,the experience shows that technological progress,reasonable operating models,favorable policy incentives and effective capital reorganization and integration are able to successfully avoid negative effects coming from the situation of global natural gas market.The momentum of global unconventional natural gas development is still strong.