政策预期对耕地保护经济补偿政策农户满意度影响的实证研究--以成都市耕地保护基金为例

摘要

The aim of this paper is to test how the policy expectation impacts the farmers’satisfaction regarding the economic compensation for farmland protection policy(ECFP). Methods employed are that on the basis of theoretical analysis, we put forward a hypothesis and use the ordered probit model to test it. The results indicate that 1)Farmers’ stability of policy expectation is positive to farmers’satisfaction about the ECFP policy significantly. From the long term, the farmers’confidence will continue to increase one standard deviation(0.811)if the ECFP policy implements over the next 5 to 10 years. The probability of“very dissatisfied”,“not satisfied”and“general”that the farmers evaluate about the compensation policy fell by 0.487%, 3.812% and 6.569%, respectively. And the probability of“satisfaction”and“very satisfied”that the farmers evaluate about the compensation policy increased by 9.570% and 1.379%, respectively. 2)Those who have higher satisfaction to the standard and form of the subsidy will have higher satisfaction with overall performance of the compensation policy. It is concluded that farmers’stability of policy expectation is important to the farmers’satisfaction about the ECFP policy. To improve the farmers’satisfaction performance about the ECFP policy, the areas of implementation of the compensation policy should keep the compensation policy continuity and consistency, speed up the systematization of the compensation policy, and form the long-term mechanism of motivating farmers to continue the cultivated land protection behavior. At the same time, we can’t ignore the importance of the standard and the form of the subsidy.%研究目的：实证分析农户对耕地保护经济补偿政策能否持续实施下去的预期对补偿政策农户满意度的影响以及影响程度。研究方法：在对政策预期与补偿政策农户满意度绩效理论分析的基础上，提出本文的研究假说，并运用有序Probit模型加以检验。研究结果：（1）稳定的政策预期对耕地保护经济补偿政策农户满意度绩效的影响正向显著；从中长期来看，农户对补偿政策未来5—10年能够持续实施的信心增加一个标准差（0.811），农民则对补偿政策“非常不满意”、“不满意”和“一般”的概率分别下降0.487%、3.812%和6.569%，对补偿政策“满意”和“非常满意”的概率分别上升9.570%和1.379%。（2）除了政策预期对农户满意度有影响外，对补贴标准和补贴形式满意程度较高的农户，其补偿政策的总体农户满意度绩效也较高。研究结论：农户稳定的政策预期对补偿政策的农户满意度有重要影响，为提高耕地保护补偿政策的农户满意度绩效，实施补偿政策的地区要保持补偿政策的持续性和连贯性，加快补偿政策的制度化进程，形成能够激发农户持续供给耕地保护行为的长效机制。同时，补贴标准和补偿形式的选择对耕地保护补偿政策农户满意度绩效的影响也不容忽视。