Influence of Aging Trend on Consumption Rate of Rural Residents——Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要

Population is a basic factor that affects consumption of residents. In China,insufficient demand of residents,especially low consumption demand of rural residents,directly weakens the promotion of consumption for economic growth. This drives the study on the relationship between the aging trend and consumption of rural residents. In this paper,the current situation of population aging in China was firstly analyzed. Then a dynamic macroeconomic model was established using the cointegration theory and selecting related time series data such as per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents( Con),per capita net income of rural residents( Rev),urban-rural income gap( RU),children dependency ratio( CDR),and old-age dependency ratio( ODR),to test the correlation between variables. The results show that the decline in the children dependency ratio promotes the increase of consumption willingness of rural residents,while the rise in the old-age dependency ratio inhibits the consumption willingness of rural residents. Finally,it came up with pertinent recommendations for guiding and promoting the consumption level of rural residents in China.