山东省县域经济时空分异演化特征研究

摘要

With the support of GeoDA software and methods of standard deviation , weighted coefficient of var-iation, Kuznets ratio and spatial autocorrelation analysis , the temporal evolution tendencies and spatial differentia -tion characteristics of the 105 counties of Shandong Province from 1995 to 2012 are quantitatively analyzed .The ab-solute difference of county economy is marked enlarging , the relative difference is increasing slowly and the polari -zation is obvious on time series; From the spatial distribution pattern, the spatial autocorrelation of county economy development in Shandong Province is obviously positive .The spatial structure of county economy differences pres -ents regionally homogeneous at the large scale and heterogeneous at the small scale .The western region’s economy lags behind the eastern region , the spatial dependence of county economy development has a trend from strengthe -ning to weakening and the county economy development is undertaken within the laws of accumulation and cycling , spatial autocorrelation clustering pattern of county economies with higher stability in Shandong Province .%借助 GeoDA 软件，运用标准差、加权变异系数、库兹涅茨比率和空间自相关等分析方法，以山东省105个县域为研究单元，从时空双重维度着手，对山东省1995-2012年县域经济差异的时间演变趋势和空间格局分异特征进行定量分析。结果发现：时间序列上山东县域经济绝对差异显著扩大，相对差异缓慢上升，极化现象显著；从空间格局来看，山东县域经济存在明显的空间自相关性，总体呈现“大异质，小均质”的空间经济格局，东部县域发达而西部县域相对落后，县域间经济发展的空间依赖性呈现出由增强到减弱的趋势，县域经济发展遵循“积累循环”法则，空间自相关集聚模式具有较高的稳定性。