4种播期下西吉马铃薯气候生产潜力稳定性分析

摘要

马铃薯为宁夏西吉县发展经济的支柱产业,为了进一步提高其生产潜力、挖掘农业资源潜力,利用西吉县1988～2009年20 a气象资料,应用潜力递减法,分别估算了西吉县马铃薯4月8日、4月28日、5月18日、6月9日四种播期的气候生产潜力(终止日期分别为各种播期下马铃薯的收获期),并以4月28日播种情况为例分析其与实际产量的关系,年际变化特征,及与各气象要素的关系.结果表明:马铃薯气候生产潜力年际变化较大,但总体变化趋势不明显,表现出极弱的递减趋势;生产潜力与日照关系甚微,日照非区域农业生产的限制因子,气温是马铃薯生长的重要影响因子,气候生产潜力明显偏低于光温生产潜力,减产与水分亏缺变化趋势一致,降水与马铃薯气候生产潜力关系密切,为主要限制因子.播种日期越晚,降水量的越不稳定导致了气候生产潜力的越发不稳定;研究结果可为大力推广马铃薯种植提供宝贵的参考信息和依据.%Potato is the economic pillar industry in Xiji County of Ningxia. In order to enhance its potential productivity, and tap the potential of agricultural resources, potential production of four kinds of potato planting (April 8, April 28, May 18 and June 9) were estimated with potential diminish method based meteorological data of 1988 ～ 2009. The relationship of potential productivity (April 28) and actual production, annual variations, as well as its relationship with meteorological factors were analyzed. The results shows that: the inter-annual changes of potato climatic potential productivity changed greatly, but the overall trend was not obvious and showed weak decreasing; the relationship between potential production and sunshine was very little, and sunshine was not the limiting factor for regional agricultural production;temperature was an important factor in affecting the Xiji potato yield; the climatic potential productivity, which cut in line with the trend of water deficit, is significantly lower than the photo-temperature petential productivity; and precipitation was the main limiting factor to restrict potato production. The later planting dates (which was led to by more unstable rainfall) were, the more unstable climate potential productivity was. The results can provide valuable reference and a basis for popularizing potato planting.